LIDAM Events

The latest forecasting innovations, showing how data can be transformed into valuable predictive insights

Note: This talk will be given in presence in room C-115.  Online access is possible but the quality cannot be guaranteed.

Speaker:
Thomas Christ, Chief data scientist at the company prognostica, Würzburg, Germany.

Summary:
In today’s fast-paced world, data-driven forecasting is crucial for staying competitive. This session explores the latest forecasting innovations, showing how data can be transformed into valuable predictive insights.

14h30 Part 1
We’ll begin with the basics: How do advanced methods—from traditional statistics to machine learning and foundation models—reveal hidden patterns in historical data? Using a demand forecasting example, we’ll discuss building accurate, actionable models and addressing practical challenges, like handling intermittent demand, managing data hierarchies, and integrating external sources. Key success factors such as model explainability, user engagement, and adaptability will also be covered to ensure forecasts are both precise and trusted by decision-makers.

15h30 Coffee break

16h00 Part 2
The session’s second part will bring theory to life with interactive examples, like predicting solar flare activity or tracking urban bike traffic. Join us to learn how to turn forecasting theory into practical insights, gaining tools and strategies to stay ahead in this rapidly evolving field.

At 17h30, we'll probably go to have a beer at the Crêperie Bretonne. Feel free to join us.
 

  TEAMS 

Jing-Rong (Rosa) Zeng

(IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain)

will give a presentation on

TBA

Abstract:

Paul Belleflamme (CORE)

will give a presentation on :

Competition for Prominence​​​​​​​

Abstract : 

TBA

  Paul Belleflamme

Ibai Ostolozaga

(University of the Basque Country)

will give a presentation on

Intra-National Trade, Misallocation and Relative Prices

For further information on how to attend, you can contact: serena.chellini@kuleuven.be or c.depierpont@uclouvain.be

Jonas von Wangenheim

(University of Bonn)

will give a presentation on

TBA

Abstract:

Hugo Gilbert (Université Paris Dauphine).
Invited by Daniele Catanzaro

will give a presentation on :

On the Computation of Strategyproof and Fair Picking Sequences

Abstract : 

When allocating indivisible items to agents, it is known that the only strategyproof mechanisms that satisfy a set of rather mild conditions are constrained serial dictatorships (also known as non-interleaving picking sequences): given a fixed order over agents, at each step the designated agent chooses a given number of items (depending on her position in the sequence). With these rules, agents who come earlier in the sequence have a larger choice of items. However, this advantage can be compensated by a higher number of items received by those who come later. How to balance priority in the sequence and number of items received is a nontrivial question. 
In this presentation, we use a model parameterized by a mapping from ranks to scores, a social welfare functional, and a distribution over preference profiles. For several meaningful choices of parameters, we show that an optimal sequence can be computed exactly in polynomial time or approximated by resorting to sampling.  

Joint work with Sylvain Bouveret, Jérôme Lang, and Guillaume Méroué.

  Hugo Gilbert

Michele Modugno (Federal Reserve Bank)

will give a presentation on :

Decoding Equity Market Reactions to Macroeconomic News

Abstract : 

We show that the reaction of the equity market to macroeconomic news is rationalized by their propagation into the real economy. We embody all the macro news in an activity and a price news indexes that together explain 34% of the quarterly stock price returns variation. When those indexes capture a stream of favorable macroeconomic surprises, publicly traded firms experience increases in revenues, profitability, financing, and investment activities. This firm-level result culminates in an expansion of the real side of the whole US economy. These results, taken together, show that the expectation of the realization of firms growth is the main driver of the stock prices reaction to macro news.

  Michele Modugno

Yin Dai

(Aarhus University)

will give a presentation on

Quality Complementarity of Imported Inputs and Output Quality

Daniele Massacci (King's College London)
Invited by Nathan Lassance

will give a presentation on :

TBA

Abstract : 

TBA

  Daniele Massacci